Belief Distortions and Lending Cyclicality: Evidence from Industry-Specialized Banks
Job Market Paper, 2026
Specialized banks grow overoptimistic about their preferred industries after stock market runups, expanding lending just before performance turns. Loans made in these windows default at rates 62 basis points higher than comparable loans from nonspecialized banks.
Recommended citation: Daniel, Ezra. (2026). "Belief Distortions and Lending Cyclicality: Evidence from Industry-Specialized Banks." Working paper.
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